Sovereign Defaults, External Debt, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics

49 Pages Posted: 28 Mar 2016

See all articles by Tamon Asonuma

Tamon Asonuma

International Monetary Fund Research Department

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Date Written: February 2016

Abstract

Emerging countries experience real exchange rate depreciations around defaults. In this paper, we examine this observed pattern empirically and through the lens of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The theoretical model explicitly incorporates bond issuances in local and foreign currencies, and endogenous determination of real exchange rate and default risk. Our quantitative analysis replicates the link between real exchange rate depreciation and default probability around defaults and moments of the real exchange rate that match the data. Prior to default, interactions of real exchange rate depreciation, originated from a sequence of low tradable goods shocks with the sovereign's large share of foreign currency debt, trigger defaults. In post-default periods, the resulting output costs and loss of market access due to default lead to further real exchange rate depreciation.

Keywords: Sovereign Defaults, External Debt, Real Exchange Rate, Currency Composition of Debt, Bond Spreads, exchange, default, exchange rate, defaults, International Lending and Debt Problems, Asset Pricing, All Countries,

JEL Classification: E43, F32, F34, G12

Suggested Citation

Asonuma, Tamon, Sovereign Defaults, External Debt, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics (February 2016). IMF Working Paper No. 16/37. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2754942

Tamon Asonuma (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund Research Department ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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