Second-Stage Sampling for Conflict Areas: Methods and Implications

33 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Kristen Himelein

Kristen Himelein

World Bank - Poverty Reduction and Economic Management

Stephanie Eckman

Government of the Federal Republic of Germany - Institute for Employment Research (IAB)

Siobhan Murray

World Bank

Johannes Bauer

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU) - Department of Sociology

Date Written: March 29, 2016

Abstract

The collection of survey data from war zones or other unstable security situations is vulnerable to error because conflict often limits the implementation options. Although there are elevated risks throughout the process, this paper focuses specifically on challenges to frame construction and sample selection. The paper uses simulations based on data from the Mogadishu High Frequency Survey Pilot to examine the implications of the choice of second-stage selection methodology on bias and variance. Among the other findings, the simulations show the bias introduced by a random walk design leads to the underestimation of the poverty headcount by more than 10 percent. The paper also discusses the experience of the authors in the time required and technical complexity of the associated back-office preparation work and weight calculations for each method. Finally, as the simulations assume perfect implementation of the design, the paper also discusses practicality, including the ease of implementation and options for remote verification, and outlines areas for future research and pilot testing.

Keywords: Poverty Diagnostics, Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping, Poverty Lines, Poverty Monitoring & Analysis, Poverty Impact Evaluation, Conflict and Fragile States, Poverty Assessment

Suggested Citation

Himelein, Kristen and Eckman, Stephanie and Murray, Siobhan and Bauer, Johannes, Second-Stage Sampling for Conflict Areas: Methods and Implications (March 29, 2016). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7617. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2756265

Kristen Himelein (Contact Author)

World Bank - Poverty Reduction and Economic Management ( email )

1818 H Street NW
MSN3-311
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Stephanie Eckman

Government of the Federal Republic of Germany - Institute for Employment Research (IAB) ( email )

Regensburger Str. 104
Nuremberg, 90478
Germany

Siobhan Murray

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Johannes Bauer

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU) - Department of Sociology

Konradstrasse 6
Munich, 80801
Germany

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