The Federal Budget: Risk of Expenditure Pattern Deterioration

Abstract

In 2015, the federal budget was executed with a deficit of 2.7% of GDP (in 2014, 0.5% of GDP). Compared to 2014, revenues have fallen significantly – by 2.0 p.p. of GDP, expenditure volume has gone up slightly – by 0.2 p.p. of GDP. The year 2016 and the following medium-term period can become more frustrated for the budget and domestic economy as a whole, in the event there are no timely decisions regarding operational and strategic measures aimed and adjusting the budget system to the new normal. At the same time, renewal of the technical ten percent budget cut in the context of protected budget lines (social obligations, defense, public-sector employees’ wages) lead to risks of further deterioration of the federal budget expenditure with decreased share of expenses, which contribute to the economic growth in the long-term (human capital and infrastructure).

Keywords: Russian economy, federal budget

JEL Classification: H61, H62