Long-Term Capital Movements

51 Pages Posted: 9 Jul 2001 Last revised: 3 Aug 2001

See all articles by Philip R. Lane

Philip R. Lane

Trinity College (Dublin) - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Central Bank of Ireland

Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti

International Monetary Fund (IMF); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: July 2001

Abstract

International financial integration allows countries to become net creditors or net debtors with respect to the rest of the world. In this paper, we show that a small set of fundamentals--shifts in relative output levels, the stock of public debt and demographic factors--can do much to explain the evolution of net foreign asset positions. In addition, we highlight that external wealth' plays a critical role in determining the behavior of the trade balance, both through shifts in the desired net foreign asset position and the investment returns generated on the outstanding stock of net foreign assets. Finally, we provide some evidence that a portfolio balance effect exists: real interest rate differentials are inversely related to net foreign asset positions.

Suggested Citation

Lane, Philip R. and Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, Long-Term Capital Movements (July 2001). NBER Working Paper No. w8366. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=275996

Philip R. Lane (Contact Author)

Trinity College (Dublin) - Department of Economics ( email )

Trinity College
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Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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Central Bank of Ireland ( email )

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Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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