'Hot Hand' on the PGA Tour: Does it Exist?
13 Pages Posted: 21 Apr 2016
Date Written: April 13, 2016
In this paper, we develop a test for the "hot hand" effect on the PGA Tour using data from the 2014 season. We define "hot hand" in golf as having a greater probability of recording a birdie or better on a hole immediately following a birdie or better, rather than if the golfer recorded a par or worse. The test, based on the Poisson binomial distribution, takes into account each hole's relative difficulty and each player's propensity to record a birdie or better on similar types of holes. Our results seem to agree with most of the related work on hot hand effects in basketball, golf, and other sports; namely that it does not exist over the course of a season. We do, however, see that golfers may get hot in a tournament and go on what is commonly referred to in the golf parlance as a "birdie barrage".
Keywords: PGA Tour, Hot Hand, Poisson Binomial Distribution
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