Endogeneity Analysis of Output Synchronization in the Current and Prospective EMU

19 Pages Posted: 14 Apr 2016

See all articles by Philip Arestis

Philip Arestis

University of Cambridge - Department of Land Economy; Universidad del País Vasco (UPV/EHU)

Peter Phelps

University of Cambridge

Date Written: May 2016

Abstract

The sustainability of European EMU (economic and monetary union) remains an important issue in light of existing plans for enlargement. This article conducts an endogeneity analysis of output synchronization, based on panel data estimation from 1994 to 2013, for different country‐groups, including core, periphery, central and eastern European countries, northern European countries and the prospective candidate countries, which are expected to adopt the euro over the coming years. The quantification of trade‐related and direct spillover channels associated with monetary integration provides insight into the relative importance of direct and indirect synchronization gains arising from EMU membership. The use of amplitude and concordance measures of synchronization and a range of estimators enhances robustness. Important endogeneity implications emerge from our analysis.

Keywords: international, business cycle, synchronization, trade intensity, endogeneity

Suggested Citation

Arestis, Philip and Phelps, Peter, Endogeneity Analysis of Output Synchronization in the Current and Prospective EMU (May 2016). JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, Vol. 54, Issue 3, pp. 525-543, 2016. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2764557 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jcms.12303

Philip Arestis (Contact Author)

University of Cambridge - Department of Land Economy ( email )

19 Silver Street
Cambridge, CB3 9EP
United Kingdom

Universidad del País Vasco (UPV/EHU)

Barrio Sarriena s/n
Leioa, Bizkaia 48940
Spain

Peter Phelps

University of Cambridge ( email )

Trinity Ln
Cambridge, CB2 1TN
United Kingdom

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
2
Abstract Views
132
PlumX Metrics