The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Impact on British Columbia

57 Pages Posted: 18 Apr 2016  

Dan Ciuriak

Ciuriak Consulting Inc.; C.D. Howe Institute; Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI); BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH

Jingliang Xiao

Infinite Sum Modeling; Ciuriak Consulting Inc.

Date Written: October 10, 2014

Abstract

This Research Report assesses the likely impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the British Columbia economy from the vantage point of what is known as the negotiations enter the end phase of negotiations in the Fall of 2014. The assessment is based on a two-step process. First, the impact of the TPP at Canada-level is simulated using a dynamic specification of the widely-used GTAP model, modified to directly represent services trade conducted through foreign affiliates as well as on a cross-border basis, and to reflect the impact of liberalization of FDI in the services sectors. The simulations take into account tariff reductions, preference utilization, the compliance cost of using preferences, the regionalization of rules of origin, and the reduction of non-tariff barriers to goods, services and investment. Second, a computable partial equilibrium (CPE) model – the Global Simulation Model (GSIM) – is used to identify the direct trade impacts on British Columbia and the Rest of Canada, which are represented directly as individual trading partners both with international partners and with each other. Based on the decomposition of the TPP trade impacts, the study infers the impacts of the TPP on the BC economy consistent with the Canada-level GTAP simulation results.

Keywords: Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP, FTA, British Columbia, Canada, CGE, GTAP, GSIM

JEL Classification: F02, F13, F15

Suggested Citation

Ciuriak, Dan and Xiao, Jingliang, The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Impact on British Columbia (October 10, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2764674

Dan Ciuriak (Contact Author)

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

C.D. Howe Institute ( email )

67 Yonge St., Suite 300
Toronto, Ontario M5E 1J8
Canada

Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) ( email )

57 Erb Street West
Waterloo, Ontario N2L 6C2
Canada

BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH ( email )

Romanstrasse 74
München, 80639
Germany

Jingliang Xiao

Infinite Sum Modeling ( email )

16167,Glenbrooks Pl
Vancouver, BC - British Columbia v4n1t3
Canada
6047245981 (Phone)
6047245981 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.infsum.com/en/

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

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