Validating Precinct-Level Measures of Fraud: Evidence from the Russian Electoral Cycle 2011-2012

41 Pages Posted: 24 Apr 2016 Last revised: 14 Aug 2016

See all articles by Kirill Kalinin

Kirill Kalinin

Stanford University - The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace

Date Written: August 7, 2016

Abstract

This research is designed to explore whether election fraud precinct-level estimates obtained from a finite mixture likelihood model, recently developed by Mebane(2015), can be validated against alternative, more intuitive measures of election fraud. I estimate the precinct-level probabilities from the parametric model of election fraud and compare them against measures based on election observation, different voting modes as well as several popular forensics indicators. This study also tests how well the cluster patterns of the finite mixture likelihood probabilities on different levels of aggregation are associated with the clusters of alternative election fraud measures. The data used is from the parliamentary election 2011 and presidential election 2012 in Russia. My basic findings demonstrate that finite mixture estimates if compared to alternative sources of information, seem to be effectively capturing electoral anomalies, making this new estimator very useful in election forensics research.

Keywords: election forensics, election fraud, toolkit, finite mixture model, Russian elections

JEL Classification: D70, D72

Suggested Citation

Kalinin, Kirill, Validating Precinct-Level Measures of Fraud: Evidence from the Russian Electoral Cycle 2011-2012 (August 7, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2767713 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2767713

Kirill Kalinin (Contact Author)

Stanford University - The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305-6010
United States

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