The Roles of Transparency in Regime Change: Striking When the Iron's Gone Cold
46 Pages Posted: 23 Apr 2016 Last revised: 7 Aug 2016
Date Written: August 5, 2016
How does freedom of information about an institution's resilience affect its stability? We study the ex ante impact of public information on regime change in a global game, accounting for uncertainty over what will be communicated. A fundamental tension exists in the ways public information impacts coordination. When the probability of regime change is already high, public information persuades agents into larger attacks. But under these conditions information targets attacks wastefully. For 'small' releases of public information, we characterize the overall implications of this trade-off for regime change. When the incumbent is ex ante weak, public information persuades agents to attack while simultaneously reducing their chances of success. By contrast, lower costs imply transparency negatively affects regime change only if the marginal productivity of attacks is sufficiently high.
Keywords: Public Information, Coordination, Regime Change
JEL Classification: C72, D62, D82, D83
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation