What is the Expected Return on a Stock?
83 Pages Posted: 28 Apr 2016 Last revised: 30 Aug 2018
Date Written: August 27, 2018
We derive a formula for the expected return on a stock in terms of the risk-neutral variance of the market and the stock's excess risk-neutral variance relative to the average stock. These quantities can be computed from index and stock option prices; the formula has no free parameters. The theory performs well empirically both in and out of sample. Our results suggest that there is considerably more variation in expected returns, over time and across stocks, than has previously been acknowledged.
Keywords: Equity Returns, Risk Premia, Risk-Neutral Variance, Equity Options
JEL Classification: G11, G12, G13
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation