Common Trends in the US State-Level Crime. What Do Panel Data Say?

25 Pages Posted: 29 Apr 2016

See all articles by Mauro Costantini

Mauro Costantini

Brunel University London

Iris Meco

Brunel University London

Antonio Paradiso

Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia

Date Written: April 22, 2016

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the long-run relationship between crime, inequality, unemployment and deterrence using state-level data for the US over the period 1978-2013. The novelty of the paper is to use non-stationary panels with factor structures. The results show that: i) a simple crime model well fits the long run relationship; ii) income inequality and unemployment have a positive impact on crime, whereas deterrence displays a negative sign; iii) the effect of income inequality on crime is large in magnitude; iv) property crime is generally highly sensitive to deterrence measures based upon police activities.

Keywords: Crime, deterrence, inequality, unemployment, panel cointegration, cross-section dependence

JEL Classification: C33, E20, K40

Suggested Citation

Costantini, Mauro and Meco, Iris and Paradiso, Antonio, Common Trends in the US State-Level Crime. What Do Panel Data Say? (April 22, 2016). University Ca' Foscari of Venice, Dept. of Economics Research Paper Series No. 14, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2771655 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2771655

Mauro Costantini (Contact Author)

Brunel University London ( email )

Kingston Lane
Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH
United Kingdom

Iris Meco

Brunel University London ( email )

Kingston Lane
Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH
United Kingdom

Antonio Paradiso

Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia ( email )

Cannaregio 873
Venice, 30121
Italy

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