Exchange Rate Modeling: The Case of Ruble

Review of Business and Economics Studies, Volume 3, Number 3, 2015. рр. 39-48.

10 Pages Posted: 30 Apr 2016

See all articles by Anton Kuzmin

Anton Kuzmin

Government of the Russian Federation - Financial University (Moscow Branch)

Date Written: September 1, 2015

Abstract

The model of the equilibrium exchange rate of ruble is under construction on the basis of streams of the balance of payments of Russia taking into account trade conditions. Export-import transactions, factors of movement of the capital, a trade condition, indexes of the internal and export prices, and real gross domestic product, factors of elasticity of the foreign trade operations, decisions of microagents are used as base determinants in the model. In the process of creating the model it was justified a number of key internal dynamic functional dependencies were found that has allowed us to put the capital flows in the model on formal logical level, and, thus, to extend the model to the case of capital mobility. We discuss the relationship results from the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in the framework of the author's conceptual approach to the assessment of the equilibrium exchange rate based on international flows (IFEER). The technique of adjustment of model internal parametres is offered with a view of macroeconomic regulation of the exchange rate of ruble. Based on the modeling results we built the analysis of the dynamics of the nominal exchange rate of ruble in 2013- 2015.

Keywords: Ethe equilibrium exchange rate, exchange rate of ruble, the balance of payments, a trade condition, the macroeconomic policy, capital streams

JEL Classification: E10, F31, F32, F47, F41

Suggested Citation

Kuzmin, Anton, Exchange Rate Modeling: The Case of Ruble (September 1, 2015). Review of Business and Economics Studies, Volume 3, Number 3, 2015. рр. 39-48., Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2772094

Anton Kuzmin (Contact Author)

Government of the Russian Federation - Financial University (Moscow Branch) ( email )

Leningradsky Prospect, 49
Moscow
Russia

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