Of Leaders and Followers - An Econometric Analysis of Equity Analysts and Stock Market Investors

47 Pages Posted: 2 May 2016

See all articles by Rainer Baule

Rainer Baule

University of Hagen

Hannes Wilke

FernUniversität in Hagen

Date Written: April 29, 2016

Abstract

We measure the information content of monthly analyst consensus forecasts for one-year-forward earnings per share (EPS) based on two well-established price discovery measures drawn from the area of market micro-structure research. Employing a 36-year sample of large US companies listed in the S&P 100 Index, we compute (i) Hasbrouck's information shares and (ii) Gonzalo and Granger's common factor component shares to measure the relative share that market participants and analysts have in the process of price discovery. We find that while analysts do not lead the capital market, they have a small but significant share in the process of price discovery, amounting to 4.6% (Hasbrouck) and 18.0% (Gonzalo and Granger) on average. This share varies significantly in the cross-section. We identify the level of analyst coverage as an explanatory factor: The greater a company's coverage, the smaller is the analysts' information share. This finding can be explained by analysts' herding behavior as well as by company incentives, which lower the information content of their estimates.

Keywords: analyst forecasts, information content, equity research, market efficiency, price discovery, error-correction, information share

JEL Classification: G12, G14, G17, G2, C32, C53, D82

Suggested Citation

Baule, Rainer and Wilke, Hannes, Of Leaders and Followers - An Econometric Analysis of Equity Analysts and Stock Market Investors (April 29, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2772709 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2772709

Rainer Baule

University of Hagen ( email )

Universitaetsstrasse 41
Hagen, 58097
Germany

Hannes Wilke (Contact Author)

FernUniversität in Hagen ( email )

Hagen
Germany

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