경제위기 이후 한국경제의 성장: 성장회계 및 성장회귀 분석 (Understanding Post-Crisis Growth of the Korean Economy: Growth Accounting and Cross-Country Regressions)

KDI Journal of Economic Policy 2008, 30(1) 33-70

39 Pages Posted: 9 May 2016

See all articles by Chinhee Hahn

Chinhee Hahn

Korea Development Institute (KDI) - Macroeconomic Policy Division

Sukha Shin

Korea Development Institute (KDI)

Date Written: June 30, 2008

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 경제위기 이후 한국경제의 성장 둔화의 요인을 살펴보고, 국제비교적 관점에서 위기 이후의 성장 성과를 평가해 보았다. 수량변수 및 가격변수를 이용한 성장회계 분석 결과는 경제위기 이후 급격한 성장 둔화가 주로 노동자 1인당 자본축적의 둔화에 의해 설명되는 것으로 나타났다. 반면, 경제위기 이후 2001~05년 기간 중 총요소생산성 증가율은 경제 위기 이전인 1991~95년 시기에 비해 다 소 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 한편 외환위기 이후 한국경제의 성장 둔화는 전 세계적 성장 둔화라는 시대적 요인과 동아시아 지역 고유의 요인에 대부분 기인한 것으로 분석되었다. 특히 자본축적의 둔화는 동아시아 지역 고유 요인에 주로 기인한 것으로 분석되었다. 국제비교적 관점에서 볼 때 전반적으로 위기 이후 한국경제의 성장 성과는 생산성 향상 및 자본축적이라는 측면에서 부정적으로만 평가하기는 어려운 것으로 보인다.

English Abstract: This paper examines sources of growth of Korea’s economy for the period from 1980 to 2005, based on both primal and dual growth accounting methodology employed by Young (1995) and Hsieh (2002). Also, this paper evaluates post-crisis growth performance of Korea, using cross-country comparison of growth accounting results and cross-country regressions. Main results of this paper are as follows. First, the growth slowdown after the crisis has been mainly driven by the slowdown of per worker capital accumulation. By contrast, the estimated TFPG of Korea for the period from 2001 to 2005 seems higher than, or at least roughly comparable to, the estimated TFPG in the pre-crisis period of 1991-1995. In theses respects, there were no substantial differences between the results obtained from primal and dual growth accounting methodology. Second, the cross-country regressions reveal that post-crisis growth slowdown of the Korea’s economy can be largely attributed to world growth slowdown (decade effect) and East Asia-specific effects. In particular, it was found that the noticeable deceleration in per worker capital accumulation can be mostly attributed to some unknown factors which commonly affected East Asian countries. Viewed from an international perspective, the lowered post-crisis per worker GDP growth rate, as well as per-worker capital growth, which triggered concerns and debates in varying contexts, still seems respectable. So, the slowdown in capital accumulation is likely to be mainly a story of spectacularly high rate of capital accumulation in the pre-crisis period, not a story of ‘weak’ investment after the crisis.

Note: Downloadable document is in Korean.

Keywords: 경제성장 (Economic Growth), 성장회계 (Growth Accounting), 총요소생산성 (TFP), 한국경제 (Korean Economy)

JEL Classification: O10, O11, O40

Suggested Citation

Hahn, Chinhee and Shin, Sukha, 경제위기 이후 한국경제의 성장: 성장회계 및 성장회귀 분석 (Understanding Post-Crisis Growth of the Korean Economy: Growth Accounting and Cross-Country Regressions) (June 30, 2008). KDI Journal of Economic Policy 2008, 30(1) 33-70 , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2773370

Chinhee Hahn (Contact Author)

Korea Development Institute (KDI) - Macroeconomic Policy Division ( email )

P.O. Box 113 Cheongryangri Dong
Seoul 130-012
United States

Sukha Shin

Korea Development Institute (KDI) ( email )

263 Namsejong-ro
Sejong-si 30149
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

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