Unintended Consequences of Forecast Disaggregation: A Multi-Period Perspective
38 Pages Posted: 4 May 2016
Date Written: November 3, 2015
Prior research finds that investors respond more favorably to a disaggregated earnings forecast than to an aggregated one immediately after the forecast. The present study examines the impact of this initial favorable effect on investors’ decisions following earnings surprise announcements. Based on Expectation Violation Theory, we posit that the benefit of a disaggregated earnings forecast can backfire when management subsequently reports an earnings surprise. The results of our experiment indicate that investors’ negative reactions are stronger if they first observed a disaggregated forecast than if they first saw an aggregated forecast. We find that investors make the greatest downward adjustments in investment interest when the disaggregated forecast is later found to be disappointing. This study provides evidence of the complexity of the effect of disaggregated earnings forecast and adds to the literature concerning the costs and benefits of accounting information disaggregation.
Keywords: Investor Reaction, Forecast Error, Forecast Disaggregation, Earnings Surprises, Expectation Violation Theory
JEL Classification: M41
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation