Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?

41 Pages Posted: 4 May 2016

See all articles by Yi Che

Yi Che

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - Antai College of Economics and Management

Yi Lu

National University of Singapore (NUS) - Department of Economics

Justin R. Pierce

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Peter K. Schott

Yale University - School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Yale University - Cowles Foundation

Zhigang Tao

The University of Hong Kong - School of Business

Date Written: 2016-03

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on U.S. Congressional elections. We find that U.S. counties subject to greater competition from China via a change in U.S. trade policy exhibit relative increases in turnout, the share of votes cast for Democrats and the probability that the county is represented by a Democrat. We find that these changes are consistent with Democrats in office being more likely than Republicans to support legislation limiting import competition or favoring economic assistance.

Keywords: China, Voting, Elections, Import Competition, Normal Trade Relations, World Trade Organization

JEL Classification: F13, F16, D72

Suggested Citation

Che, Yi and Lu, Yi and Pierce, Justin R. and Schott, Peter K. and Tao, Zhigang, Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections? (2016-03). FEDS Working Paper No. 2016-039, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2774640 or http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2016.039

Yi Che (Contact Author)

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - Antai College of Economics and Management ( email )

Huashan Road 1954
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Shanghai, Shanghai 200030
China

Yi Lu

National University of Singapore (NUS) - Department of Economics ( email )

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Justin R. Pierce

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

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Peter K. Schott

Yale University - School of Management ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://www.som.yale.edu/faculty/pks4

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Yale University - Cowles Foundation

Box 208281
New Haven, CT 06520-8281
United States

Zhigang Tao

The University of Hong Kong - School of Business ( email )

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Hong Kong
China
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(852) 2858-5614 (Fax)

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