Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?

41 Pages Posted: 4 May 2016 Last revised: 21 Sep 2016

See all articles by Yi Che

Yi Che

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - Antai College of Economics and Management

Yi Lu

National University of Singapore (NUS) - Department of Economics

Justin R. Pierce

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Peter K. Schott

Yale University - School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Yale University - Cowles Foundation

Zhigang Tao

The University of Hong Kong - School of Business

Date Written: March, 2016

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on U.S. Congressional elections. We find that U.S. counties subject to greater competition from China via a change in U.S. trade policy exhibit relative increases in turnout, the share of votes cast for Democrats and the probability that the county is represented by a Democrat. We find that these changes are consistent with Democrats in office being more likely than Republicans to support legislation limiting import competition or favoring economic assistance.

JEL Classification: F13, F16, D72

Suggested Citation

Che, Yi and Lu, Yi and Pierce, Justin R. and Schott, Peter K. and Tao, Zhigang, Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections? (March, 2016). FEDS Working Paper No. 2016-39, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2774640 or http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2016.039

Yi Che (Contact Author)

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - Antai College of Economics and Management ( email )

Huashan Road 1954
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Shanghai, Shanghai 200030
China

Yi Lu

National University of Singapore (NUS) - Department of Economics ( email )

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Justin R. Pierce

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

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Peter K. Schott

Yale University - School of Management ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Yale University - Cowles Foundation

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New Haven, CT 06520-8281
United States

Zhigang Tao

The University of Hong Kong - School of Business ( email )

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Hong Kong
China
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(852) 2858-5614 (Fax)

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