The Carry Trade and Implied Moment Risk

47 Pages Posted: 6 May 2016 Last revised: 13 Oct 2016

See all articles by Michael Broll

Michael Broll

University of Duisburg-Essen - Department of Economics and Business Administration

Date Written: January 17, 2016

Abstract

The carry trade is a zero net investment strategy that borrows in low yielding currencies and subsequently invests in high yielding currencies. It has been identified as highly profitable FX strategy delivering significantly excess returns with high Sharpe ratios. This paper shows that these excess returns are especially compensation for bearing FX variance and negative skewness risk. Additionally, factor risks that affect foreign money changes, foreign inflation changes, as well as changes to a newly developed Carry Trade Activity Index and the VIX index, as a proxy for global risk aversion, make up the carry trade risk anatomy. These findings are not exclusively important for carry traders, but also contribute to the understanding of currency risk in the cross-section. This is directly linked to asset pricing tests from Lustig et al. (2011), which have shown that currency baskets sorted on their interest rate differentials are all exposed to carry trade returns as a risk factor. Furthermore, this paper finds evidence that a decreased level of funding liquidity potentially leads to carry trade unwindings, controlling for equity and FX implied variance and skewness effects, which supports the theoretical model of liquidity spirals developed by Brunnermeier and Pedersen (2009).

Keywords: Carry Trade Activity, Crash Risk, Liquidity Spirals, Option-Implied Risk, Mimicking Portfolios, Currency, Uncovered Interest Rate Parity

JEL Classification: E44, F31, G12, G13, G15

Suggested Citation

Broll, Michael, The Carry Trade and Implied Moment Risk (January 17, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2775663 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2775663

Michael Broll (Contact Author)

University of Duisburg-Essen - Department of Economics and Business Administration ( email )

Universitätsstr. 9
Essen, 45141
Germany

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
323
rank
90,284
Abstract Views
1,301
PlumX Metrics