40 Pages Posted: 9 May 2016
Date Written: May 2016
We use two quasi-natural experiments in the 1980s and 1990s to identify how public policies affect important long-run Outcomes by changing preferences. Large but short-lived shocks to product availability in Russia shifted young consumers' long-run preferences from hard to light alcohol. The resulting large cohort differences in current alcohol consumption shares decades after the interventions ended explain about 60% of the recent decrease in male mortality based on both micro-level and aggregate estimates. Mortality will continue to decrease by another 23% over the next twenty years based on our analysis. Program impact evaluations that focus only on contemporaneous effects can therefore severely underestimate the total effect of such public policies.
Keywords: long-run policy effects, endogenous preferences, mortality
JEL Classification: D12, H31, I10
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Kueng, Lorenz and Yakovlev, Evgeny, Long-Run Effects of Public Policies: Endogenous Alcohol Preferences and Life Expectancy in Russia (May 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2776422 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2776422