Long-Run Effects of Public Policies: Endogenous Alcohol Preferences and Life Expectancy in Russia

40 Pages Posted: 9 May 2016  

Date Written: May 2016

Abstract

We use two quasi-natural experiments in the 1980s and 1990s to identify how public policies affect important long-run Outcomes by changing preferences. Large but short-lived shocks to product availability in Russia shifted young consumers' long-run preferences from hard to light alcohol. The resulting large cohort differences in current alcohol consumption shares decades after the interventions ended explain about 60% of the recent decrease in male mortality based on both micro-level and aggregate estimates. Mortality will continue to decrease by another 23% over the next twenty years based on our analysis. Program impact evaluations that focus only on contemporaneous effects can therefore severely underestimate the total effect of such public policies.

Keywords: long-run policy effects, endogenous preferences, mortality

JEL Classification: D12, H31, I10

Suggested Citation

Kueng, Lorenz and Yakovlev, Evgeny, Long-Run Effects of Public Policies: Endogenous Alcohol Preferences and Life Expectancy in Russia (May 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2776422 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2776422

Lorenz Kueng (Contact Author)

Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management ( email )

2001 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL 60208
United States
+1 (847) 491-7843 (Phone)
+1 (847) 491-5719 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.lorenzkueng.com

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Evgeny Yakovlev

NES ( email )

47 Nakhimovsky Prospekt
Moscow, 117418
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/evgenyyakovlev/

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