Value-Added Tax: Portuguese Experience and Anticipated Impact on the Greek Tourism Industry

32 Pages Posted: 12 May 2016

See all articles by Cesario Mateus

Cesario Mateus

Aalborg University Business School

Irina B. Mateus

Aalborg University

Date Written: May 10, 2016


This paper estimates the impact of the recent 10% VAT increase on Greek tourism industry, the effect on firm profitability and probability of firm survival by testing the consequences of an equivalent VAT change in Portugal. The analysis is divided into 3 periods: before and after the VAT hike, and during the financial crisis with the total time period from 2003 to 2013. The sample is composed of 23,388 Portuguese and 4,969 Greek unique firms with 5.1 and 6.9 year-observations per firm for Portugal and Greece, on average and respectively. The results show that the increase of VAT from 13 to 23% will lead to a negative scenario with the effect even more dramatic than the recent financial crisis. The equivalent 10% VAT raise in Portugal caused a significant decline in firm profitability, an average drop of 9.4% compared to 1.15% during the financial crisis, a massive increase in the number of inactive firms and amplified the likelihood of firms to become bankrupt by 3.063 times. Such consequences will inevitably affect unemployment and will cause a slump in tax revenue in the long run. Hence, this research has wide practical and academic implementation and should be considered by the Greek and Portuguese government before taking a next step of interventions in the tourism sector.

Keywords: Value-Added Tax, profitability, firm bankruptcy

Suggested Citation

Mateus, Cesario and B. Mateus, Irina, Value-Added Tax: Portuguese Experience and Anticipated Impact on the Greek Tourism Industry (May 10, 2016). Available at SSRN: or

Cesario Mateus (Contact Author)

Aalborg University Business School ( email )


Irina B. Mateus

Aalborg University ( email )

Fredrik Bajers Vej 7E
Aalborg, DK-9220

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
PlumX Metrics