인도 모디(Modi) 정부의 경제개발정책과 한ㆍ인도 협력방안 (Indian Modi Government's Economic Development Policy and Implication for Cooperation between Korea and India )

240 Pages Posted: 11 May 2016

See all articles by Choong Jae Cho

Choong Jae Cho

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Young Chul Song

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Jung Mi Lee

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Date Written: December 30, 2015

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 인도 모디 정부가 추진하고 있는 소위 모디노믹스는 고성장과 친기업을 지향하는 일종의 경제개혁 정책이다. 모디노믹스는 투자를 통해 고용과 소비를 촉진하고, 이것이 다시 투자로 이어지는 선순환 구조를 안착시키는데 중점을 두고 있다. 이를 위해 모디 정부는 안정적인 거시경제 기반위에 각종 투자 규제를 완화하거나 철폐하는 등 투자환경을 개선하고 있는 한편, 효율적이며 신뢰받는 리더십을 구축하는데 주력하고 있다. 특히 모디 정부는 모디노믹스의 핵심정책인 Make in India, 스마트시티 및 산업회랑 개발을 중심으로 인도 경제의 취약점인 제조업과 인프라 개발 부문에 민간 및 외국인투자를 유치하는데 집중하고 있다. 이를 위해 모디 총리는 직접 주요국 순방과 정상회담을 통해 세일즈 외교를 전개하면서 일본, 중국 등으로부터 대규모 투자 약속을 이끌어 내는 등 상당한 성과를 거두고 있다.

한편 인도의 GDP대비 제조업 비중은 중국의 절반 정도에 불과하지만 주요 신흥국 중 가장 빠르게 증가하고 있으며 특히 제조업 내에서의 고도화가 상대적으로 빠르게 진행되고 있다. 10인 이상의 근로자를 고용하고 있는 등록(registered) 제조업의 GDP대비 비중이 1950/51년 3.7%에서 2013/14년 10.6%로 2.8배 이상 높아졌으며, 등록 제조업 중 석유화학, 자동차 등 비전통 제조업 비중이 1950/51년 39%에서 2007/08년 75%로 높아졌다. 또한 고용탄력성이 전체적으로 낮아지고 있는 가운데 등록 민간 제조업의 고용탄력성은 상대적으로 빠르게 높아지고 있다. 인프라 부문 투자도 11차 5개년 개발계획(2007~2012)이후 본격적으로 증가하고 있다. 10차 개발계획에서 처음으로 투자비중이 GDP대비 5%를 돌파한 이후 11차와 12차 개발계획에서는 각각 7.2%, 8.2%까지 증가했다. 하지만 중국의 투자비중 대비 절반에도 미치지 못해 인도가 중국과 같은 제조업 중심의 세계 공장으로 부상하는 데는 상당한 시간이 필요하다.

English Abstract: The current government of India is pushing ahead with a series of economic reform policy, named ‘Modinomics’ after its chief executive, focusing on high growth and being business-friendly. Modinomics emphasizes the virtuous circle of investment that promote employment and consumption, which induces additional investment. The Indian government has been concentrating on improving the business environment through easing or removal of various regulations related to investment, and also establishing a reliable and efficient leadership. Especially, the government of India has placed a priority on attracting private and foreign investment into development of infrastructure and promoting manufacturing sector, based on key policies of Modinomics such as the ‘Smart City’ and development of the Industrial Corridor, and finally, the “Made in India” campaign. As a part of his increasingly active ‘sales diplomacy,’ Narendra Modi, prime minister of India, has visited several countries, including Japan and China; holding summit meetings with its leaders and receiving promises of massive investment.

Meanwhile, although India’s manufacturing ratio to GDP is approximately half that of Korea, its growth rate in the sector is fastest among emerging countries and advancements in manufacturing structure is also progressing swiftly. The ratio of registered manufacturers employing more than 10 workers ratio to GDP has increased by 2.8 times, from 3.7% in 1950/51 to 10.6% in 2013/14, and the ratio of non-traditional registered manufacturing such as petrochemical and automobiles, etc. to GDP increased to 75% in 2007/08 from 39% in 1950/51. Also, elasticity of employment in private manufacturing is also rising at a rapid pace, though overall elasticity of employment is decreasing. Investment into infrastructure has been increasing after the conclusion of the 11th 5-year development plan (2007-2012), as the ratio of investment into infrastructure ratio to GDP initially crossed the 5% mark during 10th 5-year development period, and subsequently recording 7.2% and 8.2% respectively during 11th and 12th 5-year development periods. However, it would take considerable time for India to emerge as a world class manufacturing hub like China because current investment ratio of India is still only around half that of China.

Note: Downloadable document is in Korean.

Keywords: Modinomics, Economic Development Policy, Manufacturing, Smart City, Development of Infrastructure, Economic Cooperation, Korea, India

Suggested Citation

Cho, Choong Jae and Song, Young Chul and Lee, Jung Mi, 인도 모디(Modi) 정부의 경제개발정책과 한ㆍ인도 협력방안 (Indian Modi Government's Economic Development Policy and Implication for Cooperation between Korea and India ) (December 30, 2015). KIEP Research Paper No. Policy Analysis-15-15. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2778460 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2778460

Choong Jae Cho (Contact Author)

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Young Chul Song

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Jung Mi Lee

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

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