E. B. Wilson on 'Keynes on Probability'
19 Pages Posted: 14 May 2016
Date Written: May 11, 2016
Wilson attempted to review the TP in 1923, but, lacking a knowledge of George Boole’s interval valued approach to probability, upon which Keynes built his logical approach to probability, he failed completely to recognize what it was that Keynes was doing. He admitted this in the review. Without a knowledge of Boole, he was doomed to fail.
Wilson tried again in 1934. This time, he had figured out what it was that Boole and Keynes were doing. Unfortunately, he could not grasp or understand the concept of incomplete information, data, evidence or knowledge. He could not fathom the need for indeterminate (uncertain) probabilities. He could not understand the concept of uncertainty and its relationship to the weight of the evidence. He also misrepresented what Keynes had done in chapter 15 and failed to acknowledge that he had obtained his source from the A Treatise on Probability. His solution is merely a variation on a theme that had already been done by Keynes in 1921 in chapter 15 on pp. 162-163.
Keywords: similarity, indeterminate, uncertainty, Boole, Keynes, weight of the evidence
JEL Classification: B10, B12, B20, B22
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation