E. B. Wilson on 'Keynes on Probability'

19 Pages Posted: 14 May 2016

See all articles by Michael Emmett Brady

Michael Emmett Brady

California State University, Dominguez Hills

Date Written: May 11, 2016

Abstract

Wilson attempted to review the TP in 1923, but, lacking a knowledge of George Boole’s interval valued approach to probability, upon which Keynes built his logical approach to probability, he failed completely to recognize what it was that Keynes was doing. He admitted this in the review. Without a knowledge of Boole, he was doomed to fail.

Wilson tried again in 1934. This time, he had figured out what it was that Boole and Keynes were doing. Unfortunately, he could not grasp or understand the concept of incomplete information, data, evidence or knowledge. He could not fathom the need for indeterminate (uncertain) probabilities. He could not understand the concept of uncertainty and its relationship to the weight of the evidence. He also misrepresented what Keynes had done in chapter 15 and failed to acknowledge that he had obtained his source from the A Treatise on Probability. His solution is merely a variation on a theme that had already been done by Keynes in 1921 in chapter 15 on pp. 162-163.

Keywords: similarity, indeterminate, uncertainty, Boole, Keynes, weight of the evidence

JEL Classification: B10, B12, B20, B22

Suggested Citation

Brady, Michael Emmett, E. B. Wilson on 'Keynes on Probability' (May 11, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2778911 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2778911

Michael Emmett Brady (Contact Author)

California State University, Dominguez Hills ( email )

1000 E. Victoria Street, Carson, CA
Carson, CA 90747
United States

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