Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank

Riksbank Research Paper Series No. 142

Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series No. 318

36 Pages Posted: 23 May 2016

See all articles by Jens Iversen

Jens Iversen

Centre for Economic and Business Research - Copenhagen Business School; Aarhus University - School of Business and Social Sciences

Stefan Laseen

Sveriges Riksbank - Monetary Policy Department

Henrik Lundvall

Sveriges Riksbank

Ulf Soderstrom

Bocconi University

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: March 2016

Abstract

We evaluate forecasts made in real time to support monetary policy decisions at Sveriges Riksbank (the central bank of Sweden) from 2007 to 2013. We compare forecasts made with a DSGE model and a BVAR model with judgemental forecasts published by the Riksbank, and we evaluate the usefulness of conditioning information for the model-based forecasts. We also study the perceived usefulness of model forecasts for central bank policymakers when producing the judgemental forecasts.

Keywords: Real-time forecasting, Forecast evaluation, Monetary policy, Inflation targeting

JEL Classification: E37, E52

Suggested Citation

Iversen, Jens and Laseen, Stefan and Lundvall, Henrik and Soderstrom, Ulf, Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank (March 2016). Riksbank Research Paper Series No. 142, Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series No. 318, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2780417 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2780417

Jens Iversen

Centre for Economic and Business Research - Copenhagen Business School ( email )

Porcelaenshaven 16A
DK-2000 Frederiksberg
Denmark

Aarhus University - School of Business and Social Sciences ( email )

Building 350
DK-8000 Aarhus C
Denmark

Stefan Laseen

Sveriges Riksbank - Monetary Policy Department ( email )

S-103 37 Stockholm
Sweden

Henrik Lundvall

Sveriges Riksbank ( email )

Brunkebergstorg 11
SE-103 37 Stockholm
Sweden

Ulf Soderstrom (Contact Author)

Bocconi University ( email )

Via Sarfatti, 25
Milan, MI 20136
Italy

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