Educational Expectations and Dropout Behavior Among Junior High Students in Rural China

19 Pages Posted: 18 May 2016

See all articles by Fang Chang

Fang Chang

Shaanxi Normal University

Min Bin

Shaanxi Normal University

Yaojiang Shi

Shaanxi Normal University

Kaleigh Kenny

Stanford University

Prashant Kumar Loyalka

Stanford University - Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies

Date Written: May–June 2016

Abstract

The high level of dropout from junior high school is one of the most serious challenges facing the human capital development of the next generation of workers in China's rural areas. The goal of this paper is to assess to what extent the educational expectations of students are correlated with dropout behavior at the junior high school level in China. Using panel data, this research finds that the cumulative dropout rate is high among grade 7 and 8 students within our sample (as high as 19.5 percent, which implies a 3‐year dropout rate of around 25 percent). Importantly, we find that this high rate of dropout is significantly correlated with students' educational expectations. Specifically, students who reported their expected level of education is “less than high school” or “less than college” are five times and four times more likely to drop out during junior high school than their peers, respectively.

Keywords: dropout, educational expectations, junior high school, rural China

JEL Classification: I20, I25, R10

Suggested Citation

Chang, Fang and Bin, Min and Shi, Yaojiang and Kenny, Kaleigh and Loyalka, Prashant, Educational Expectations and Dropout Behavior Among Junior High Students in Rural China (May–June 2016). China & World Economy, Vol. 24, Issue 3, pp. 67-85, 2016, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2781276 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12159

Fang Chang (Contact Author)

Shaanxi Normal University ( email )

Chang'an Chang'an District
199 South Road
Xi'an, Shaanxi Province 710062
China

Min Bin

Shaanxi Normal University

Yaojiang Shi

Shaanxi Normal University ( email )

Chang'an Chang'an District
199 South Road
Xi'an, Shaanxi Province 710062
China

Kaleigh Kenny

Stanford University ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

Prashant Loyalka

Stanford University - Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

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