How Brexit Affects European Union Power Distribution

16 Pages Posted: 21 May 2016  

Laszlo A. Koczy

Hungarian Academy of Sciences (HAS) - Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies (HAS); Keleti Faculty of Economics, Óbuda University

Date Written: May 18, 2016

Abstract

The possible exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union will have profound economic and political effects. Here we look at a particular aspect, the power distribution in the Council of the European Union. Since the Lisbon treaty the exit does not require new negotiations as the success of a voting initiative only depends on the number and total population of the supporting member states. Using the Shapley-Shubik power index we calculate the member states' powers with and without the United Kingdom and update earlier power forecasts using the Eurostat's latest population projections. There is a remarkably sharp relation between population size and the change in power: Brexit increases the largest members', while decreases the smallest ones' powers.

Keywords: European Union, Council of the European Union, qualified majority voting, power index, a priori voting power, demographics

JEL Classification: C71, D72

Suggested Citation

Koczy, Laszlo A., How Brexit Affects European Union Power Distribution (May 18, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2781666 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2781666

Laszlo A. Koczy (Contact Author)

Hungarian Academy of Sciences (HAS) - Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies (HAS) ( email )

Budaörsi 45
Budapest, H-1112
Hungary

HOME PAGE: http://www.econ.core.hu/english/inst/koczy.html

Keleti Faculty of Economics, Óbuda University ( email )

Tavaszmező u. 15-17.
Budapest, 1084
Hungary

HOME PAGE: http://kgk.uni-obuda.hu

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