How Brexit Affects European Union Power Distribution

16 Pages Posted: 21 May 2016

See all articles by Laszlo A. Koczy

Laszlo A. Koczy

Hungarian Academy of Sciences (HAS) - Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies (HAS); Quantitative Social and Management Sciences Research Group, Budapest University of Technology and Economics

Date Written: May 18, 2016

Abstract

The possible exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union will have profound economic and political effects. Here we look at a particular aspect, the power distribution in the Council of the European Union. Since the Lisbon treaty the exit does not require new negotiations as the success of a voting initiative only depends on the number and total population of the supporting member states. Using the Shapley-Shubik power index we calculate the member states' powers with and without the United Kingdom and update earlier power forecasts using the Eurostat's latest population projections. There is a remarkably sharp relation between population size and the change in power: Brexit increases the largest members', while decreases the smallest ones' powers.

Keywords: European Union, Council of the European Union, qualified majority voting, power index, a priori voting power, demographics

JEL Classification: C71, D72

Suggested Citation

Koczy, Laszlo A., How Brexit Affects European Union Power Distribution (May 18, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2781666 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2781666

Laszlo A. Koczy (Contact Author)

Hungarian Academy of Sciences (HAS) - Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies (HAS) ( email )

Budaörsi 45
Budapest, H-1112
Hungary

HOME PAGE: http://www.mtakti.hu/en/kutatok/laszlo-a-koczy/276/

Quantitative Social and Management Sciences Research Group, Budapest University of Technology and Economics ( email )

Magyar Tudósok krt. 2.
Budapest, 1117
Hungary

HOME PAGE: http://qsms.mokk.bme.hu/index.php/koczy/

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
394
Abstract Views
1,214
rank
77,886
PlumX Metrics