중국 · 베트남 금융개혁이 북한에 주는 함의 (Implication of Financial Reforms in China and Vietnam for North Korea)

188 Pages Posted: 22 May 2016

See all articles by Ho Yeol Lim

Ho Yeol Lim

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Young Chan Kim

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Ho-Kyung Bang

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Junyoung Kim

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Philip Pilsoo Choi

Sejong University

Date Written: December 30, 2015

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 북한의 금융시스템은 중앙은행 중심의 일원적 은행제도(monobank system)에 기초하고 있다. 조선중앙은행은 재정활동과 더불어 중앙은행기능과 상업은행 기능까지 수행하고 있다. 이러한 기본 틀은 고난의 행군, 화폐개혁 등을 거치면서 국가통제력의 약화, 시장경제 영역의 확대와 함께 적지 않은 변화를 겪었다. 중앙은행의 자금공급기능은 약화되었으며, 그 틈새로 사금융이 자리를 잡고 있다. 특히, 2009년의 화폐개혁에 이은 물가와 환율 급등으로 북한 원화와 금융기관에 대한 신뢰가 추락하였으며, 달러라이제이션(dollarization) 현상이 심화되고 있다.

이처럼 북한에서는 민간부문의 저축이 금융기관을 통해 기업의 투자재원으로 공급되는 금융 본연의 기능이 작동하지 못하는 데다 핵 문제 등으로 국제금융시장 접근도 불가능하여 경제발전을 위한 내·외자 동원이 난관에 봉착해 있는 실정이다.

북한은 최근 들어 내자동원의 중요성을 인식하고 나름대로 예금 증대와 외화 흡수수단을 강구하고 있는 것으로 보인다. 또한 중앙은행법, 상업은행법 등을 제정하여 이원적 은행제도의 이행의지를 내비치기도 했다. 그러나 북한의 현 상황은 일부 금융 운용방식 변경이나 제도 개선만으로 해결될 수 없으며, 금융이 경제발전을 견인하기 위해서는 근본적인 개혁이 필요하다.

본고에서는 중국과 베트남의 금융개혁 경험을 분석함으로써 북한의 금융개혁에 주는 시사점을 모색하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 북한의 현 금융상황 파악과 함께 중국·베트남의 금융개혁 과정을 개혁이전부터 초기 제도정비기까지에 초점을 맞추어 구체적으로 살펴보았다. (후략)

English Abstract: North Korea’s financial system is based upon the mono-banking system centered around the Central Bank of the DPRK. The Central Bank of the DPRK serves diverse functions - aside from financial activities, it also acts simultaneously as a central bank and a commercial bank.

Such framework, however, underwent considerable changes with events such as the Arduous March and the monetary reform in 2009, along with weakening of state control and increase in marketization. The Central Bank’s function of providing capital has attenuated, with private finance filling the gap. Especially, the 2009 monetary reform triggered a spike in both the price level and exchange rates, sparking the disbelief towards the North Korean won and financial institutions as well as worsening the dollarization trend.

North Korea is facing challenges in utilizing domestic and foreign capitals to foster economic growth. The financial sector which is supposed to channel private saving into investment through financial institutions is malfunctioning, and North Korea’s nuclear issues makes it incapable of accessing the foreign finance market.

North Korea seems to know the significance of domestic finance in stimulating the economy, and is seeking to foster savings and absorb foreign capitals. The Central Bank Act or the Commercial Banking Law also indicates the nation’s willingness to move towards the two-tier banking system. However, North Korea’s current situation cannot be resolved merely through a partial change in operational methods nor through institutional adjustments and therefore a fundamental change is necessary in order for the financial system to fulfill its role as a catalyst for economic progress.

This research aims to use China and Vietnam’s experience of financial reforms to draw out implications for North Korea’s financial reform. Along with an analysis about current North Korea’s situation, we focus on China and Vietnam’s reform process, specifically from pre-reform to early institutional settlement phase. (the rest omitted)

Note: Downloadable document is in Korean.

Keywords: Financial Policy, Economy, North Korea, Financial System, Bank Reform, North Korea, China, Vietnam

Suggested Citation

Lim, Ho Yeol and Kim, Young Chan and Bang, Ho-Kyung and Kim, Junyoung and Choi, Philip Pilsoo, 중국 · 베트남 금융개혁이 북한에 주는 함의 (Implication of Financial Reforms in China and Vietnam for North Korea) (December 30, 2015). KIEP Research Paper No. Policy Analysis-15-36 , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2782307 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2782307

Ho Yeol Lim (Contact Author)

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Young Chan Kim

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Ho-Kyung Bang

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Junyoung Kim

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Philip Pilsoo Choi

Sejong University ( email )

143-743 Seoul
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

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