Does it Matter If Statistical Agencies Frame the Month's CPI Report on a 1-Month or 12-Month Basis?

Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Saiki, Ayako

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2782635

Does it Matter If Statistical Agencies Frame the Month's CPI Report on a 1-Month or 12-Month Basis?

HKS Working Paper No. 16-011

13 Pages Posted: 23 May 2016

See all articles by Jeffrey A. Frankel

Jeffrey A. Frankel

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Ayako Saiki

University of London - School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS); De Nederlandsche Bank - Monetary and Economic Policy Department

There are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: March 15, 2016

Abstract

When the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases new numbers, in theory it should make no difference whether the press release emphasizes the most recent 1-month number, which is what it does, or the 12-month number, as many other countries’ statistical agencies do. This paper offers the hypothesis that it does matter: Markets react to CPI inflation news via whichever framing the agency chooses.

Keywords: Announcement, bond, CPI, framing, inflation, market, monthly, reaction, release, statistical

JEL Classification: E, F, G

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Frankel, Jeffrey A. and Saiki, Ayako, Does it Matter If Statistical Agencies Frame the Month's CPI Report on a 1-Month or 12-Month Basis? (March 15, 2016). HKS Working Paper No. 16-011, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2782635 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2782635