How Informative are Central Bank Assessments of Macroeconomic Risks?

76 Pages Posted: 8 Jun 2016

See all articles by Malte Knüppel

Malte Knüppel

Deutsche Bundesbank - Research Centre

Guido Schultefrankenfeld

Deutsche Bundesbank

Date Written: 2011


Surveying the forecasting practice of several central banks, we find that all these banks issue statements about risks to their macroeconomic forecasts. Often the balance of these risks is assessed as well. Upward [downward] risks to the forecast commonly imply that the outturn is expected to lie above [below] the central forecast. Investigating the inflation risk forecasts of the Bank of England and the Sveriges Riksbank, however, we do not find conclusive evidence for informativeness, that is, for a systematic connection between risk assessments and forecast errors. Thus, it seems questionable whether macroeconomic risk forecasts are meaningful.

Keywords: forecast evaluation, risk forecasts, inflation forecasts

JEL Classification: E37, C12, C53

Suggested Citation

Knüppel, Malte and Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, How Informative are Central Bank Assessments of Macroeconomic Risks? (2011). Bundesbank Series 1 Discussion Paper No. 2011,13, Available at SSRN: or

Malte Knüppel (Contact Author)

Deutsche Bundesbank - Research Centre ( email )

Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14
D-60431 Frankfurt/Main


Guido Schultefrankenfeld

Deutsche Bundesbank ( email )

Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14
Research Centre
Frankfurt/Main, DE Hesse 60431


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