Does a Currency Union Affect Trade? The Time Series Evidence
27 Pages Posted: 7 Aug 2001
Date Written: July 2001
Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? We answer this question using a large annual panel data set covering over 230 countries from 1948-97. During this sample over one hundred pairs of countries had currency union dissolutions; they experienced economically and statistically significant declines in bilateral trade, after accounting for other factors. Assuming symmetry, we estimate that a pair of countries that starts to use a common currency experiences a doubling in bilateral trade.
Keywords: Monetary, gravity, empirical, international, bilateral, country, common currency, union, fixed, random, effects, within
JEL Classification: F15, F33
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation