F. Y. Edgeworth on J. M. Keynes' A Treatise on Probability: The Mind and Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Reviews

18 Pages Posted: 5 Jun 2016 Last revised: 7 Jul 2016

See all articles by Michael Emmett Brady

Michael Emmett Brady

California State University, Dominguez Hills

Date Written: June 3, 2016

Abstract

Edgeworth's two reviews of the A Treatise on Probability, in Mind and The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, demonstrated an understanding of many of the topics of Keynes' approach that was not achieved by any other reviewer, including the reviews made by B. Russell and C. D. Broad.

Edgeworth covered and understood that interval valued probability was the most general representation of the probability relation for Keynes, that the weight of the evidence, was opposed to the weight of the argument, V, was an important breakthrough, along with Keynes' conventional coefficient of weight and risk, c.

He recognized the connection between the "finite probabilities" of part III of the TP and interval valued probability, as well as the connection between them and Keynes' concepts of intuition, the logic of similarity-dissimilarity, resemblances, pattern recognition, and analogy. He understood the importance of being able to apply Chebyshev's Inequality in areas where Keynes had raised concerns about the effectiveness of the standard approach. Edgeworth's review is vastly superior to the reviews of Ronald Fisher and Arne Fisher, as well as to the reviews of E. Wilson, R. Pearl, or H. Jefferys.

Keywords: weight of the argument (evidence), interval valued probability

JEL Classification: B10, B12, B20, B22

Suggested Citation

Brady, Michael Emmett, F. Y. Edgeworth on J. M. Keynes' A Treatise on Probability: The Mind and Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Reviews (June 3, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2789307 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2789307

Michael Emmett Brady (Contact Author)

California State University, Dominguez Hills ( email )

1000 E. Victoria Street, Carson, CA
Carson, CA 90747
United States

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
51
Abstract Views
556
rank
417,889
PlumX Metrics