Economic Growth and Public and Private Investment Returns

ISEG-UL Working Paper No. 14/2016/DE/UECE

20 Pages Posted: 18 Jul 2016

See all articles by António Afonso

António Afonso

University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management); UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics); ISEG Lisbon School of Economics and Management,Universidade de Lisboa; REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics

Miguel St. Aubyn

Technical University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management); UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics)

Date Written: June 3, 2016

Abstract

We study the macroeconomic effects of public and private investment in 17 OECD economies through a VAR analysis with annual data from 1960 to 2014. From impulse response functions we find that public investment had a positive growth effect in most countries, and a contractionary effect in Finland, UK, Sweden, Japan, and Canada. Public investment led to private investment crowding out in Belgium, Ireland, Finland, Canada, Sweden, the UK and crowding-in effects in the rest of the countries. Private investment has a positive growth effect in all countries; crowds-out (crowds-in) public investment in Belgium and Sweden (in the rest of the countries). The partial rates of return of public and private investment are mostly positive.

Keywords: Fiscal Policy, Public Investment, Private Investment, Impulse Response Functions, VAR

JEL Classification: C32, E22, E62

Suggested Citation

Afonso, António and St. Aubyn, Miguel, Economic Growth and Public and Private Investment Returns (June 3, 2016). ISEG-UL Working Paper No. 14/2016/DE/UECE, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2789390 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2789390

António Afonso (Contact Author)

University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) ( email )

R. Miguel Lupi, 20
Lisbon, 1248-078
Portugal
+351 21 392 5985 (Phone)
+351 21 396 6407 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/homepage/aafonso/research

UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics)

Rua Miguel Lupi 20
Lisbon, 1249-078
Portugal
+351-213 925 912 (Phone)
+351-213 971 196 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://uece.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/

ISEG Lisbon School of Economics and Management,Universidade de Lisboa ( email )

Rua do Quelhas 6
LISBOA, 1200-781
Portugal

REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics ( email )

ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa
Rua Miguel Lupi, 20
Lisboa, 1249-078
Portugal

HOME PAGE: http://rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/

Miguel St. Aubyn

Technical University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) ( email )

Rua do Quelhas, 6
1200-071 Lisboa
Portugal
+351 21 392 5987 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.iseg.utl.pt/~mstaubyn

UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics)

ISEG/UTL, Rua Miguel Lupi 20
1249-078 Lisboa
Portugal
+351-213 925 912 (Phone)
+351-213 971 196 (Fax)

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