A Contextual Model of the Secessionist Rebellion in Eastern Ukraine

Posted: 6 Jun 2016

Date Written: May 31, 2016


This paper explores the possible contextual factors that drove some individuals to lead, and others to join the pro-secessionist rebellion in the 2013-2014 conflict in Eastern Ukraine. We expand on the existing rational choice literature on revolutionary participation and rebellious movements by building a contextual choice model accounting for both cost-benefit and behavioral considerations taken by Pro-Russian militants and rebels in the region of Donbass. Our model generates predictions about the characteristics of the socio-political-cultural context that are most likely to ignite and sustain hierarchical rebel movements similar to those in Ukraine.

Keywords: rebellion, Ukraine

JEL Classification: D74

Suggested Citation

Nicoara, Olga and White, David, A Contextual Model of the Secessionist Rebellion in Eastern Ukraine (May 31, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2789552 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2789552

Olga Nicoara (Contact Author)

Ursinus College ( email )

601 E. Main Street
Collegeville, PA 19426
United States
5715940562 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.olganicoara.com

David White

Denison University ( email )

Granville, OH 43023
United States

HOME PAGE: http://personal.denison.edu/~whiteda/

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