Download This PaperThe Lucas Critique in Practice: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of European Monetary Integration on the Term Structure
Zurich IEER Working Paper No. 82
20 Pages Posted: 8 Aug 2001
Date Written: July 2001
Abstract
An empirical investigation of the term structure (the relation of the long interest rate to the short interest rate) showed structural change as the deadline for the euro became closer. Our empirical analysis of the term structures (yield curves) in 12 OECD countries uncovers that econometrically estimated behavioural equations for most EMU countries were stable even in the light of the creation of the euro. This finding would seem to defy the Lucas Critique. However, the significant structural instability found for the euro area's core country Germany suggests that the Lucas Critique is relevant in the analysis of the impact of the creation (and future extensions) of EMU.
Keywords: Lucas Critique, Monetary Union, Term Structure
JEL Classification: 1320, 3110
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Jan Marc Berk
De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )
P.O. Box 98
1000 AB Amsterdam, 1000 AB
Netherlands
+31 20 524 3912 (Phone)
+31 20 524 2506 (Fax)
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