No Better Moment to Score a Goal than Just Before Half Time? A Soccer Myth Statistically Tested

32 Pages Posted: 13 Jun 2016

See all articles by Stijn Baert

Stijn Baert

Ghent University; University of Antwerp; Catholic University of Louvain (UCL); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Simon Amez

Ghent University

Abstract

We test the soccer myth suggesting that a particularly good moment to score a goal is just before half time. To this end, rich data on 1,179 games played in the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League are analysed. In contrast to the myth, we find that, conditional on the goal difference and other game characteristics at half time, the final goal difference at the advantage of the home team is 0.520 goals lower in case of a goal just before half time by this team. We show that this finding relates to this team's lower probability of scoring a goal during the second half.

Keywords: soccer, sports, goal scoring, fixed effects regression models

JEL Classification: L83, J44, Z00

Suggested Citation

Baert, Stijn and Amez, Simon, No Better Moment to Score a Goal than Just Before Half Time? A Soccer Myth Statistically Tested. IZA Discussion Paper No. 9980. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794290

Stijn Baert (Contact Author)

Ghent University ( email )

University of Antwerp ( email )

Prinsstraat 13
Antwerp, Antwerp 2000
Belgium

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.uantwerpen.be/nl/personeel/stijn-baert/

Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) ( email )

Place Montesquieu, 3
Louvain-la-Neuve, 1348
Belgium

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.uclouvain.be/en-309318.html

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.iza.org/en/webcontent/personnel/photos/index_html?key=6832

Simon Amez

Ghent University

Coupure Links 653
Gent, 9000
Belgium

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