Bounds on Treatment Effects on Transitions
46 Pages Posted: 16 Jun 2016
Date Written: April 21, 2016
This paper considers identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only ensures the comparability of treatment and controls at the time of randomization, so that long run average treatment effects are not point identified. Instead we derive informative bound on these average treatment effects. Our bounds do not impose (semi)parametric restrictions, as e.g. proportional hazards. We also explore various assumptions such as monotone treatment response, common shocks and positively correlated outcomes that tighten the bounds.
Keywords: Partial identification, duration model, randomized experiment, treatment effect
JEL Classification: C14, C41
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation