Loan Loss Provisioning and Procyclicality: Evidence from an Expected Loss Model

41 Pages Posted: 21 Jun 2016

See all articles by Christian Domikowsky

Christian Domikowsky

University of Muenster - Finance Center Muenster

Sven Bornemann

University of Muenster - Finance Center Muenster

Klaus Duellmann

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Andreas Pfingsten

University of Münster - Finance Center Münster

Date Written: 2014

Abstract

Several studies have addressed, with conflicting results, the issue of procyclical effects of loan loss provisions in the past. More recently, the weak performance of incurred loss models in the financial crisis has given rise to a new debate on the sound design of credit risk provisioning schemes, which is reflected in the scheduled implementation of an expected loss model in IFRS 9. This study contributes to the extant literature by separately analyzing the cyclical effects of specific and general loan loss provisions under a legislative framework that allows provisions based on expected losses in the loan portfolio. Using three different measures of forward-looking provisioning, we find typical German banks, most of them unlisted and operating regionally, to use specific loan loss provisions countercyclically, in particular for earnings management and by anticipating non-performing loans at the closing date. The use of general loan loss provisions is predominantly motivated by tax considerations, pointing out the considerable importance of the impact of local tax law.

Keywords: procyclicality, earnings management, hidden reserves, loan loss provisioning, expected losses, managerial discretion

JEL Classification: G01, G21, M41

Suggested Citation

Domikowsky, Christian and Bornemann, Sven and Duellmann, Klaus and Pfingsten, Andreas, Loan Loss Provisioning and Procyclicality: Evidence from an Expected Loss Model (2014). Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 39/2014, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2797018

Christian Domikowsky (Contact Author)

University of Muenster - Finance Center Muenster ( email )

Universitatsstr. 14-16
Muenster, 48143
Germany

Sven Bornemann

University of Muenster - Finance Center Muenster ( email )

Universitatsstr. 14-16
Muenster, 48143
Germany
+49 251 83 29948 (Phone)
+49 251 83 22882 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.wiwi.uni-muenster.de/fcm

Klaus Duellmann

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Andreas Pfingsten

University of Münster - Finance Center Münster ( email )

Universitätsstr. 14-16
Muenster, D-48143
Germany

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