Effects of Demographic and Educational Changes on the Labor Markets of Brazil and Mexico

28 Pages Posted: 23 Jun 2016

See all articles by Ernesto Amaral

Ernesto Amaral

RAND Corporation

Bernardo Queiroz

Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG)

Julia Calazans

Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG)

Date Written: February 12, 2015

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of demographic and educational changes on the earnings and returns to schooling of workers in Brazil and Mexico. Our analysis takes into account demographic, educational and economic variations within each country over time, using Censuses microdata from Brazil and Mexico. Results suggest that demographic and educational transitions generate impact on earnings and on returns to education. The proportion of people in age-education groups tends to have a negative impact on earnings. These impacts are more detrimental among age-education groups with higher education, but they are having less of a negative effect over time. We also find that the concentration of skilled labor has positive impacts on the rates of returns to education and that they are greater than those observed in more developed countries. Moreover, in Brazil and Mexico, these effects are observed throughout the income distribution, contrary to what is observed in studies for the United States.

Keywords: demographic transition, education transition, cohort size, earnings, labor markets, Brazil, Mexico

Suggested Citation

Amaral, Ernesto and Queiroz, Bernardo and Calazans, Julia, Effects of Demographic and Educational Changes on the Labor Markets of Brazil and Mexico (February 12, 2015). RAND Working Paper Series WR- 1089. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2798893 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2798893

Ernesto Amaral (Contact Author)

RAND Corporation ( email )

1776 Main Street
P.O. Box 2138
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
United States

Bernardo Queiroz

Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) ( email )

Av. Antonio Carlos, 6627
Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais 31270-901
Brazil

Julia Calazans

Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) ( email )

Av. Antonio Carlos, 6627
Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais 31270-901
Brazil

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