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The Economics of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: Understanding the Alternative Estimates

21 Pages Posted: 27 Jun 2016 Last revised: 19 Nov 2016

Dan Ciuriak

Ciuriak Consulting Inc.; C.D. Howe Institute; Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI); BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH

Date Written: September 10, 2016

Abstract

Since the conclusion of the TPP negotiations, a number of studies have been put in the public domain providing estimates of the likely impacts. The estimates vary by a very large magnitude, from negative impacts to major gains, which has raised questions about the methodologies being used to generate them. This note reviews the sources of differences of seven studies, including official studies released by the United States and Canada. It demonstrates that studies of the TPP that are based on close readings of the TPP text find small impacts, when the agreement is evaluated in conventional terms.

Keywords: Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP, CGE, Quantitative Models

JEL Classification: F13, F14

Suggested Citation

Ciuriak, Dan, The Economics of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: Understanding the Alternative Estimates (September 10, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2800588

Dan Ciuriak (Contact Author)

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

C.D. Howe Institute ( email )

67 Yonge St., Suite 300
Toronto, Ontario M5E 1J8
Canada

Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) ( email )

57 Erb Street West
Waterloo, Ontario N2L 6C2
Canada

BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH ( email )

Romanstrasse 74
M√ľnchen, 80639
Germany

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