Thirty Years of Conflict and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Synthetic Control Approach

42 Pages Posted: 30 Jun 2016

See all articles by Firat Bilgel

Firat Bilgel

Department of Economics and Finance, Okan University

Burhan Can Karahasan

Okan University

Date Written: June 28, 2016

Abstract

This study seeks to estimate the economic effects of PKK terrorism in Turkey in a causal framework. We create a synthetic control group that reproduces the Turkish real per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) before PKK terrorism emerged in the second half of the 1980s. We compare the GDP of the synthetic Turkey without terrorism to the actual Turkey with terrorism for the period 1955-2008. Covering the period of 1988-2008, we find that the Turkish per capita GDP would have been higher by an average of about $1,585 per year had it not been exposed to PKK terrorism. This translates into an average of 13.8 percent higher per capita GDP or a 0.62 percentage points higher annual growth over a period of 21 years. Our estimate is robust to country exclusion, sparse controls, various non-outcome characteristics as predictors of GDP, alternative specifications of the in-space placebo experiments and to other potentially confounding interventions to the sample units in the pre-terrorism period.

Keywords: separatist terrorism, synthetic control, Turkey, economic development, causal inference

JEL Classification: C15, D74, P59

Suggested Citation

Bilgel, Firat and Karahasan, Burhan Can, Thirty Years of Conflict and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Synthetic Control Approach (June 28, 2016). LEQS Paper No. 112. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2801525 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2801525

Firat Bilgel

Department of Economics and Finance, Okan University ( email )

Istanbul, Istanbul 34959
Turkey
902166771630 (Phone)
902166771667 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.okan.edu.tr

Burhan Can Karahasan (Contact Author)

Okan University ( email )

Istanbul
Turkey

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
83
Abstract Views
522
rank
298,315
PlumX Metrics