Dissecting Stock Price Momentum Using Financial Statement Analysis

61 Pages Posted: 4 Jul 2016

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 27, 2016

Abstract

An extensive literature on stock price momentum documents that past price performance predicts future price performance (over the next 3-12 months). I argue that past price performance could be driven either by informed investors or by noise traders and financial statement analysis (FSA) can help distinguish between these two drivers of past returns. I show that stocks where past price performance is consistent with fundamentals exhibit greater momentum and earn larger risk-adjusted returns than a pure momentum-based trading strategy. Furthermore, these returns have lower volatility, reduce portfolio turnover, and produce significantly higher ex-post Sharpe ratios. Meanwhile, stocks with past price performance that is inconsistent with fundamentals exhibit reversals. Overall, my evidence documents new and robust evidence on the usefulness of FSA.

Keywords: Momentum, Fundamental Analysis, Financial Statement Analysis

JEL Classification: G11, G12, M41

Suggested Citation

Safdar, Irfan, Dissecting Stock Price Momentum Using Financial Statement Analysis (June 27, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2803675 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2803675

Irfan Safdar (Contact Author)

Widener University ( email )

Chester, PA 19013
United States

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