Возможные Демографические Сценарии России и Их Последствия (Russia's Possible Demographic Scenarios and Their Consequences)

81 Pages Posted: 11 Jul 2016

See all articles by Vladimir Arkhangelskiy

Vladimir Arkhangelskiy

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Sergey Shulgin

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Igor Efremov

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Denis Pustovalov

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Date Written: June 6, 2016

Abstract

Russian Abstract: В работе обосновывается методология построения сценариев для основных демографических процессов: рождаемости, смертности и миграции. Для четырех сценариев (наиболее вероятного, пессимистического, оптимистического и супер оптимистического) сделаны расчеты демографических траекторий. В данной работе приведены траектории и сценарии для России в целом. Для полученных демографических траекторий проводится анализ структуры населения и описываются возможные последствия предстоящих изменений.

English Abstract: The paper substantiates the methodology of construction of scenarios for the main demographic processes: fertility, mortality and migration. For the four scenarios (most likely, pessimistic, optimistic, and super optimistic) calculations of demographic trajectories are made. This paper presents the trajectory and scenarios for Russia as a whole. For derived demographic trajectories of the analysis of the population structure and describes the possible consequences of the upcoming changes.

Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

Keywords: demography, scenarios, Russia, демография, сценарии, Россия

Suggested Citation

Arkhangelskiy, Vladimir and Shulgin, Sergey and Efremov, Igor and Pustovalov, Denis, Возможные Демографические Сценарии России и Их Последствия (Russia's Possible Demographic Scenarios and Their Consequences) (June 6, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2804956 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2804956

Vladimir Arkhangelskiy (Contact Author)

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Sergey Shulgin

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Igor Efremov

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Denis Pustovalov

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

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