Dynamics of Individual and Collective Agricultural Adaptation to Water Scarcity
Winter Simulation Conference 2016
12 Pages Posted: 13 Jul 2016 Last revised: 21 Jul 2016
Date Written: July 20, 2016
Drought and water scarcity are growing challenges to agriculture around the world. Farmers can adapt through both individual and community-based collective actions. We draw on extensive field-work conducted with paddy farmers in rural Sri Lanka to study adaptations to water scarcity, including switching to less water-intensive crops, farming collectively on shared land, and individually turning to groundwater by digging wells. We explore how variability in climate affects agricultural decision-making at the community and individual levels using three types of decision-making, each characterized by an objective function: risk-averse expected utility, regret-adjusted expected utility, and prospect theory loss-aversion. We also assess how the introduction of individualized access to irrigation water with wells affects community-based drought mitigation practices. Preliminary results suggest that the growth of well-irrigation may produce sudden disruptions to community-based adaptations, but that this depends on the mental models farmers use to think about risk and make decisions under uncertainty.
Keywords: agent-based models,drought,agriculture,common-pool resources,sustainability,decision science,climate adaptation,prospect theory
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