Short and Long Run Uncertainty

55 Pages Posted: 12 Jul 2016 Last revised: 19 Mar 2018

See all articles by Jose Maria Barrero

Jose Maria Barrero

ITAM - Business School

Nicholas Bloom

Stanford University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Ian J. Wright

Goldman Sachs - Goldman Sachs

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: March 13, 2018

Abstract

Uncertainty appears to have both a short-run and a long-run component, which we measure using firm and macro implied volatility data from equity options of 30 days to 5 years duration. We ask what may be driving uncertainty over these different time horizons, finding that policy uncertainty, interest rate volatility, and currency volatility are particularly associated with long-run uncertainty, while oil price volatility and CEO turnover appear to impact short- and long-run uncertainty about equally. Examining a panel of over 4,000 firms from 1996 to 2016 we find that investment is relatively more sensitive to long-run uncertainty than hiring, and about as sensitive to long-run uncertainty as R&D. Investment is also more sensitive to the overall level of uncertainty than both R&D and hiring, holding fixed the relative magnitude of short- versus long-run uncertainty. We investigate the channels underlying these different sensitivies to short- versus long-run uncertainty, and show empirically and in simulations that lower depreciation rates and higher adjustment costs explain why investment is more sensitive to longer-run uncertainty. Collectively, these results suggest that recent events that have raised long-run policy uncertainty may be particularly damaging to growth by reducing investment and R&D.

Keywords: Uncertainty, investment, employment

JEL Classification: D92, E22, D8, C23

Suggested Citation

Barrero, Jose Maria and Bloom, Nicholas and Wright, Ian J., Short and Long Run Uncertainty (March 13, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2807456 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2807456

Jose Maria Barrero (Contact Author)

ITAM - Business School ( email )

Rio Hondo No. 1
Col. Tizapan-San Angel Alc. Alvaro Obregon
Ciudad de Mexico, 01000
Mexico

Nicholas Bloom

Stanford University - Department of Economics ( email )

Landau Economics Building, Room 231
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Stanford, CA 94305-6072
United States
650-725-7836 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://economics.stanford.edu/faculty/bloom

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Ian J. Wright

Goldman Sachs - Goldman Sachs ( email )

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