What Drives Anomaly Returns?

Abstract

We decompose the returns of five well-known anomalies into cash flow and discount rate news. Common patterns emerge across the five factor portfolios and their mean-variance efficient (MVE) combination. Whereas discount rate news predominates in market returns, systematic cash flow news drives the returns of anomaly portfolios and their MVE combination with the market portfolio. Anomaly cash flow and discount rate shocks are largely uncorrelated with market cash flow and discount rate shocks and business cycle fluctuations. These rich empirical patterns restrict the joint dynamics of firm cash flows and the pricing kernel, thereby informing models of stocks' expected returns.

Keywords: anomalies, expected stock returns, efficient portfolio, present value, return decomposition, cash flow news, discount rate news

JEL Classification: G12