Ambiguity Aversion and the Expected Cost of Rare Energy Disasters: An Application to Nuclear Power Accidents

30 Pages Posted: 13 Jul 2016

See all articles by Romain Bizet

Romain Bizet

Mines ParisTech - Centre for Industrial Economics

Francois Leveque

École Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris - Centre d'Économie Industrielle (CERNA)

Date Written: March 23, 2016

Abstract

Assessing the risks of rare disasters due to the production of energy is paramount when making energy policy decisions. Yet, the costs associated with these risks are most often not calculable due to the high uncertainties that characterize their potential consequences. In this paper, we propose a non-Bayesian method for the calculation of the expected cost of rare energy disasters, that accounts for the ambiguity that characterizes the probabilities of these events. Ambiguity is defined as the existence of multiple and conflicting sources of information regarding the probabilities associated with these events. We then apply this method to the particular case of nuclear accidents in new builds. Our results suggests that the upper-bound of the expected cost of such accidents is 1.7e/MWh, which is consistent with most of the recent estimates. This expected cost may rise to 7e/MWh when the macroeconomic shock caused by a nuclear accident is taken into account.

Suggested Citation

Bizet, Romain and Leveque, Francois, Ambiguity Aversion and the Expected Cost of Rare Energy Disasters: An Application to Nuclear Power Accidents (March 23, 2016). USAEE Working Paper No. 16-269, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2808723 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2808723

Romain Bizet (Contact Author)

Mines ParisTech - Centre for Industrial Economics ( email )

60, boulevard Saint Michel
75272 Paris Cedex 06, 75272
France

HOME PAGE: http://www.cerna.mines-paristech.fr/fr/bizet/

Francois Leveque

École Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris - Centre d'Économie Industrielle (CERNA) ( email )

60, boulevard Saint Michel
75272 Paris Cedex 06, 75272
France

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