The Effects of DNA Databases on the Deterrence and Detection of Offenders

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of adding criminal offenders to a DNA database. Using a large expansion of Denmark’s DNA database, we find that DNA registration reduces recidivism within the following year by up to 42%. It also increases the probability that offenders are identified if they recidivate, which we use to estimate the elasticity of crime with respect to the detection probability and find that a 1% higher detection probability reduces crime by more than 2%. We also find that DNA registration increases the likelihood that offenders find employment, enroll in education, and live in a more stable family environment.

Keywords: DNA, deterrence, crime, recidivism, technology