External Factors in Emerging Market Recoveries: An Empirical Investigation
Posted: 21 Jul 2016
Date Written: May 13, 2005
We estimate conditional duration models to analyse recovery processes in emerging market economies. Our reduced form specification is parsimonious, as we focus on exogenous factors, such as the effect of growth in the US, EU, and Japan on the prospects for recovery in emerging market economies experiencing recessions. The model confirms the importance of external factors in recovery processes. However, the short-run effect of Japanese growth on recovery prospects is unconventional: weak economic conditions in Japan turn out to facilitate recoveries.
Keywords: Emerging markets, Recessions, Duration
JEL Classification: C1, E3, F4
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation