External Factors in Emerging Market Recoveries: An Empirical Investigation

Posted: 21 Jul 2016

See all articles by Ricardo Mora

Ricardo Mora

Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

Georges Siotis

Universidad Carlos III de Madrid - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Date Written: May 13, 2005

Abstract

We estimate conditional duration models to analyse recovery processes in emerging market economies. Our reduced form specification is parsimonious, as we focus on exogenous factors, such as the effect of growth in the US, EU, and Japan on the prospects for recovery in emerging market economies experiencing recessions. The model confirms the importance of external factors in recovery processes. However, the short-run effect of Japanese growth on recovery prospects is unconventional: weak economic conditions in Japan turn out to facilitate recoveries.

Keywords: Emerging markets, Recessions, Duration

JEL Classification: C1, E3, F4

Suggested Citation

Mora, Ricardo and Siotis, Georges, External Factors in Emerging Market Recoveries: An Empirical Investigation (May 13, 2005). European Economic Review, Vol. 49, No. 3, Pp. 683-702, 2005, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2812154

Ricardo Mora

Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

Georges Siotis (Contact Author)

Universidad Carlos III de Madrid - Department of Economics ( email )

Calle Madrid 126
Getafe, 28903
Spain
+34 91 624 9312 (Phone)
+34 91 624 9875 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

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