Экономические Выгоды, Издержки и Риски Для России От Торгово-Экономических Союзов Стран Снг Со Стра-Нами Европы и Сша (Economic Benefits, Costs and Risks for Russia on Trade and Economic Alliances with Countries of CIS, Europe and the USA Contact)

87 Pages Posted: 3 Aug 2016

See all articles by Alexander Knobel

Alexander Knobel

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Studies

Margarita Kazaryan

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)

D Kuznetsov

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

V. Sedalishchev

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Alexander Firanchuk

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - International Laboratory of International Economics Studies

Date Written: May 18, 2016

Abstract

Russian Abstract: В работе проведен анализ соглашения о ЗСТ между Украиной и ЕС и оценка того, как подписание данного соглашения и политическая ситуация вокруг него повлияют на ВВП России, Украины и ЕС, торговые потоки между странами, а также рассмотрены риски прекращения сотрудничества для отдельных предприятий Украины и России. На основе модели общего равновесия авторы рассматривают последствия для различных сценариев дальнейшего развития торговых взаимоотношений России с Украиной. Первый сценарий заключается в имплементации торговой части договора об ассоциации, а именно обнулении взаимных пошлин между Украиной и ЕС. Второй сценарий состоит во введении ЕТТ странами ЕАЭС по отношению к импорту из Украины, без рассмотрения имплементации торговой части договора об ассоциации. Третий сценарий рассматривает вариант полного прекращения взаимной торговли, через введения заградительных (по своей величине) взаимных нетарифных ограничений Россией и Украиной.

English Abstract: The analysis of the agreement on free trade area between Ukraine and the EU and an assessment of the signing of this agreement and the political situation around him will affect the GDP of Russia, Ukraine and the EU, trade flows between the two countries and discussed the risks of termination of cooperation for the individual enterprises of Ukraine and Russia. On the basis of the general equilibrium model, the authors consider the implications for different scenarios of further development of trade relations between Russia and Ukraine. The first scenario is the implementation of the trade agreement on association, namely the zeroing reciprocal duties between the EU and Ukraine. The second scenario is the introduction of CCT EAEC countries in relation to imports from Ukraine, without consideration of the implementation of the commercial part of the association agreement. The third scenario is considering a complete cessation of mutual trade through the introduction of protective (in magnitude) of mutual non-tariff barriers Russia and Ukraine.

Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

Keywords: Ukraine , Russia, EU, CIS, trade unions, Украина, Россия, ЕС, СНГ, торговые союзы

Suggested Citation

Knobel, Alexander and Kazaryan, Margarita and Kuznetsov, D and Sedalishchev, Vladimir and Firanchuk, Alexander, Экономические Выгоды, Издержки и Риски Для России От Торгово-Экономических Союзов Стран Снг Со Стра-Нами Европы и Сша (Economic Benefits, Costs and Risks for Russia on Trade and Economic Alliances with Countries of CIS, Europe and the USA Contact) (May 18, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2812159 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2812159

Alexander Knobel (Contact Author)

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

3-5 Gazetny Lane
Moscow, 125009
Russia

Russian Presidential Academy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Studies ( email )

Vernadsky Ave. 82
Moscow, 119571
Russia

Margarita Kazaryan

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) ( email )

Vernadskogo Prospect 82
Moscow, 119571
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://www.ranepa.ru/personnel.html

D Kuznetsov

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Vladimir Sedalishchev

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Alexander Firanchuk

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - International Laboratory of International Economics Studies ( email )

Moscow
Russia

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