Determinants of Non-Penalty Goals Scored Per Game in Europe's Elite Football Leagues
Posted: 23 Jul 2016
Date Written: July 22, 2016
In order to find the determinants of non-penalty goals scored per match, in association football (soccer), this paper developed a regression model consisting of 8 explanatory variables, based on observations for 98 teams playing in the top tires of club football in England, Spain, Germany, France and Italy. The regression model was developed on basis of data for twenty one explanatory variables, including technical and tactical variables, for the 2015-16 football season. The paper used a log-linear regression model in order to remove heteroscedasticity. Shots from penalty box per game, share of shots from goal box in total shots and long pass accuracy were found to have statistically significant positive impact on non-penalty goals scored per game. Share of long passes in total passes and crosses per game have significant negative impact. Additionally a log-linear regression model was run on 35 teams for whom the number of non-penalty goals scored per game were above the mean number of non-penalty goals scored per game. For the teams that scored more than the mean number of non-penalty goals per game, the impact of shots from penalty box, accuracy of corners and success rate with aerial balls were found to be positive and statistically significant.
Keywords: Determinants of goals, association football (soccer), football leagues, pitch actions, regression model
JEL Classification: C31
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