The Relationship between Population Growth and Standard-of-Living Growth Over 1870-2013: Evidence from a Bootstrapped Panel Granger Causality Test

38 Pages Posted: 25 Jul 2016 Last revised: 18 Jun 2017

See all articles by Tsangyao Chang

Tsangyao Chang

Feng Chia University - Finance

Hsiao-Ping Chu

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Frederick Deale

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Rangan Gupta

University of Pretoria - Department of Economics

Stephen M. Miller

University of Nevada, Las Vegas - Department of Economics; University of Connecticut - Department of Economics

Date Written: July 22, 2016

Abstract

This paper examines the linkages between population growth and standard-of-living growth in 21 countries over the period of 1870-2013. We apply the bootstrap panel causality test proposed by Kónya (2006), which accounts for both dependency and heterogeneity across countries. We find one-way Granger causality running from population growth to standard-of-living growth for Finland, France, Portugal, and Sweden, one-way Granger causality running from standard-of-living growth to population growth for Canada, Germany, Japan, Norway and Switzerland, two-way causality for Austria and Italy, and no causal relationship for Belgium, Brazil, Denmark, Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain, Sri Lanka, the UK, the USA, and Uruguay. Dividing the sample into two subsamples due to a structural break yields different results over the two periods of 1871-1951 and 1952-2013. Our empirical results suggest important policy implications for these 21 countries as the directions of causality differ across countries and time period.

Keywords: Population Growth, Standard-of-Living Growth, Dependency and Heterogeneity, Bootstrap Panel Causality Test

JEL Classification: C32, C33, O40, Q56

Suggested Citation

Chang, Tsangyao and Chu, Hsiao-Ping and Deale, Frederick and Gupta, Rangan and Miller, Stephen M., The Relationship between Population Growth and Standard-of-Living Growth Over 1870-2013: Evidence from a Bootstrapped Panel Granger Causality Test (July 22, 2016). Emprica, Journal of Applied Economics and Economic Policy, February 2017, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2813455

Tsangyao Chang

Feng Chia University - Finance ( email )

Talchung
Taiwan

Hsiao-Ping Chu

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Frederick Deale

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Rangan Gupta

University of Pretoria - Department of Economics ( email )

Lynnwood Road
Hillcrest
Pretoria, 0002
South Africa

Stephen M. Miller (Contact Author)

University of Nevada, Las Vegas - Department of Economics ( email )

4505 S. Maryland Parkway
Box 456005
Las Vegas, NV 89154
United States
702-895-3776 (Phone)
702-895-1354 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://faculty.unlv.edu/smiller/

University of Connecticut - Department of Economics

365 Fairfield Way, U-1063
Storrs, CT 06269-1063
United States

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