Education, Participation, and the Revival of U.S. Economic Growth

57 Pages Posted: 25 Jul 2016 Last revised: 9 May 2021

See all articles by Dale W. Jorgenson

Dale W. Jorgenson

Harvard University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

Mun S. Ho

Resources for the Future

Jon Samuels

Government of the United States of America - Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Date Written: July 2016

Abstract

Labor quality growth captures the upgrading of the labor force through higher educational attainment and greater experience. We find that average levels of educational attainment of new entrants remain high, but will no longer continue to rise. Growing educational attainment will gradually disappear as a source of U.S. economic growth. We find that the investment boom of 1995-2000 drew many younger and less-educated workers into employment. Employment rates for these workers declined during the recovery of 2000-2007 and dropped further during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Based on estimates of labor quality growth, growth in total factor productivity, and growth in capital quality, we project labor productivity to grow at 1.3% per year. This implies a GDP growth rate of 1.8%.

Suggested Citation

Jorgenson, Dale W. and Ho, Mun S. and Samuels, Jon, Education, Participation, and the Revival of U.S. Economic Growth (July 2016). NBER Working Paper No. w22453, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2813921

Dale W. Jorgenson (Contact Author)

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Mun S. Ho

Resources for the Future ( email )

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Jon Samuels

Government of the United States of America - Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) ( email )

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